The 2025 Grand Tour season is absolutely loaded with storylines, and I can’t remember being this excited about predictions since Pogacar and Vingegaard first started going at each other. We’ve got a potential Tour-Giro double defense, a revenge mission, a Red Bull-backed renaissance, and Evenepoel continuing to evolve into whatever his final form turns out to be. Here’s who I think wins what — and why — with the full acknowledgment that Grand Tour predictions age about as well as milk in summer.
Giro d’Italia 2025: The Pogacar Question
The biggest question mark hanging over the entire Giro: does Tadej Pogacar come back to defend? It looks likely based on what UAE Team Emirates has been signaling, and honestly, they have the roster depth to run serious GC campaigns at both the Giro and Tour simultaneously. Pogacar’s stated ambition is to dominate across all three Grand Tours, and that’s… not something you’d normally take seriously from anyone else.
My prediction: Pogacar wins if he starts. Simple as that. His 2024 Giro was one of the most dominant Grand Tour performances I’ve ever watched — winning by nearly 10 minutes while also collecting 6 stage victories. He wasn’t just the best climber; he was the best time trialist, the most aggressive attacker, and somehow also looked like he was enjoying himself the most. There’s no one else at that level when he’s focused on a race.
If Pogacar skips it though: The race opens right up and gets genuinely interesting. Primoz Roglic becomes the likely favorite, followed by Juan Ayuso (who’s been building toward Grand Tour leadership), Joao Almeida (always competitive in Italy), and maybe Geraint Thomas if INEOS decides to give the old warhorse one more shot at leadership.
Dark horse worth watching: Antonio Tiberi. The young Italian is improving at a scary rate, and racing the Giro on home roads with home crowds provides a motivational boost that’s hard to quantify but very real. He’s the kind of rider who could surprise people in a Pogacar-free field.
Tour de France 2025: The Rematch
This is the one everyone’s been circling on their calendars. Pogacar versus Vingegaard, round four. Their rivalry has become the most compelling duel in cycling since… honestly, I’m not sure when. Armstrong-Ullrich was dramatic, but these two seem more genuinely matched.
The case for Pogacar: He’s coming off a 2024 season that included the Giro, Tour, AND World Championships. That’s absurd. His form right now is supernatural — there’s no other word for it. UAE has built arguably the deepest support squad in the peloton specifically to deliver him Grand Tour victories, and their tactical execution has been nearly flawless.
The case for Vingegaard: He’s beaten Pogacar at the Tour before. Twice. People forget that in their rush to crown Pogacar. The 2024 Tour, where Vingegaard crashed horribly in the spring and still nearly caught Pogacar despite limited preparation, tells you everything about his ceiling. A fully healthy, properly prepared Vingegaard with a full Visma train is the only thing in cycling that should genuinely worry Pogacar.
My prediction: Pogacar wins, but by less than 2 minutes. His current trajectory suggests continued dominance, but I think a healthy Vingegaard closes the gap significantly. Expect absolute fireworks on every major climb — these two push each other to places neither would reach alone. That’s what makes this rivalry endearing to us cycling fans — it elevates the entire sport.
The battle for third: Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, and Carlos Rodriguez will fight for the final podium spot in what should be a fascinating race within the race. Evenepoel’s time trialing gives him a structural advantage, but Roglic’s attacking instincts could yield stage wins and bonus seconds that make up the difference. Don’t sleep on Rodriguez either — INEOS has been building him up patiently, and he’s shown flashes of something special in the mountains.
Vuelta a Espana 2025: The Open Race
The Vuelta’s charm has always been its unpredictability. While the Tour tends to go to one of three or four names, the Vuelta regularly produces surprise winners, dramatic collapses, and racing that’s just more fun to watch because nobody’s quite sure what’s going to happen.
Roglic’s playground: Primoz Roglic has won the Vuelta three times now, and something about Spanish racing just suits him perfectly. If he doesn’t win the Tour or Giro earlier in the season, expect maximum motivation and peak form at the Vuelta. His Red Bull-BORA team is well-matched to the punchy, explosive climbing that Spanish race organizers love — short, steep walls rather than 30-minute Alpine grinds.
The Evenepoel factor: Remco won the 2022 Vuelta convincingly and might target a return, especially if his Tour performance leaves him wanting more. He’s one of those riders whose ambition often outpaces his calendar — but when he’s focused on a single target, he’s devastatingly good.
Young challengers: Joao Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Egan Bernal (please let this comeback work out), and Enric Mas could all realistically contend. The Vuelta’s shorter, steeper climbs favor explosive, punchy riders over pure altitude grinders, which opens the field up considerably.
My prediction: Roglic wins his fourth Vuelta. His Spanish Grand Tour track record is exceptional, and the race profile typically plays to his strengths. But honestly, this is the most open of the three Grand Tours — I wouldn’t be shocked by an unexpected name on the podium. That’s what makes the Vuelta the Vuelta.
The Triple Crown Question
Probably should have led with this section, honestly, because it’s the most fascinating “what if” of the entire season. Could Pogacar attempt all three Grand Tours in 2025? Historically, the answer would be “absolutely not, that’s insane.” But Pogacar isn’t a historical precedent. His recovery ability, his apparent immunity to the fatigue patterns that limit normal humans, and his sheer competitive drive all suggest he might at least consider it.
If he wins the Giro and Tour, the temptation to attempt the Vuelta and achieve something no one has managed in the modern era would be enormous. The odds would still be against him — accumulated fatigue across three Grand Tours is a physical reality that talent alone can’t fully overcome. But counting out Pogacar has been a losing strategy for several years running, so who knows.
Variables That Could Change Everything
Crashes remain cycling’s great equalizer. Both Pogacar and Vingegaard have lost or nearly lost Grand Tours to crashes — it’s an inherent risk that no amount of talent can eliminate.
Illness is the other wild card. COVID hasn’t gone away, and garden-variety stomach bugs or respiratory infections have derailed plenty of well-prepared Grand Tour campaigns. These things are frustratingly random.
And then there’s form timing — the art and science of arriving at a three-week race in peak condition. Even the best-supported riders with the most sophisticated training programs sometimes get it slightly wrong. Arriving five percent undertrained or overtrained is the difference between winning and fifth place at this level.
That unpredictability is honestly part of what makes Grand Tour season the best three months on the sporting calendar. These predictions are educated guesses at best, and I’ll probably be embarrassingly wrong about at least one of them. But that’s what makes watching so compelling — the script hasn’t been written yet.
